Who will win???

Here's a forum to talk about sports. Enjoy!

Who will win the Tour de France?

Poll ended at Fri 08 Aug 2003 01:10

Lance Armstrong
0
No votes
Jan Ullrich
1
33%
Someone other than the above
2
67%
 
Total votes : 3

Who will win???

Postby Purley » Sat 19 Jul 2003 01:10

For any of you watching the progress of the Tour de France
Purley
Supporter
 
Posts: 1070
Joined: Mon 24 Mar 2003 14:07
Location: Regina

Postby Hajo » Sat 19 Jul 2003 09:33

I wish the poll would include more athletes, because I think the TDF at this stage is far from being faught out only between Ullrich and Armstrong. It is at least three-men battle which includes Alexandre Vinokourov. And Hamilton, Zubeldia and Mayo still have a chance.

Here's is my assessment, prior to the tough Pyrennees stages.

Personally, I'm a fan of Jan Ullrich. I think I can relate quite well to what he went through during the last one, two years. The "new Jan Ullrich" who has emerged out of this crisis has a lot more self-esteem, discipline and humour. He is obviously enjoying himself at the moment. However, I don't think Ullrich will win this year's tour, for the following reason: he will lose decisive time during the two remaining Pyrennees stages which have mountain finishes. That is because Ullrich has no answer to the quick changes of rythm and speed - the way we have seen Armstrong launch his attacks on the final mountain over the last few years. Ullrich may well beat Armstrong and Vinokurov again in the final time trial on the 19th stage, but probably with a smaller lead. At the end it won't be enough.

Armstrong won't win either. Described as riding his bike like a "man from another star" throughout the past four years, he is far, far away from his form of the past Tours. The only UFO that was observed during this year's tour was a Bianchi bike at the time trial. My bet is that he will lose the yellow jersey to Vinokourov on the 14th stage (Sunday) in the Pyrennees.

The winner will be someone whom nobody had on the list before the Tour: Alexandre Vinokourov. Since the death of his close friend Kivilev during Paris-Nizza this year in spring, Vino dedicates every race to Kivilev and has since grown wings. His victory at the Tour de Suisse was a superb performance. He has improved immensely in the time trials and he is the most offensive rider of the three in the mountains.

I have done a little calculation, deducting the time differences of the team time trials (4th stage) and counting only each athlete's individual performance. This leads to the following individual standings after the 12th stage:

1 Vinokourov
2 Ullrich +0'09
3 Armstrong +0'39
4 Zubeldia +1'46
4 Mayo +1'46
6 Hamilton +1'53

This shows how close the performance of these athletes really is and that Armstrong owes his current standing fully to his strong his team.

With the Pyrennees (and Basque country) approaching, the two Basques Zubeldia and Mayo will be in a class of their own during the next three stages. Four and half a minutes is a lot of time between Armstrong and them, but not impossible to recover. If Mayo slips into the yellow jersey in the Pyrennees, his lead will be short lived as he will again lose over three minutes in the final time trial. But if Zubeldia makes yellow, he may well hold on to it as he is doing great "contre la montre".

A big questionmark is behind Tyler Hamilton. Considering that he his riding with a broken collarbone since the mass collision at the first stage, his perfomance is fantastic. Noone can say if he will make it to Paris. If he does, everything is possible.

So the race is still far open.

I'm taking a bet on the finall standings:

1 Vinokourov
2 Armstrong +1'00
3 Ullrich +1'30
4 Zubeldia +3'00
5 Hamilton +5'00
6 Mayo +7'00


Hajo 8)
DON'T EAT YELLOW SNOW
Hajo
Free member
 
Posts: 53
Joined: Wed 22 Jan 2003 22:51
Location: Dortmund, Germany

Postby Rich » Sat 19 Jul 2003 13:39

Interesting Hajo.

I also hope Vino wins, and the one thing on his side is no pressure. 6 weeks ago he was the 4th of 4 team leaders at Telekom. Until Savoldelli pulled out a week before he was still only their 3rd man. Which means neither he or DTel. can have any great complaints if he goes all out, blows up and comes in lower down, becasue no one was really expecting him to be challenging for the podium.

After what he's been through this year with Kivilev, plus fantastic form he's been in all season, he can just go for it with no pressure.

Ullrich has been clever so far, but it may still be to soon for him, although providing the weather holds, he has a great chace. Most of his bad tour days have been when it is wet or cold. Armstrong has shown falibility as well (he's come off twice in the tour, more than in the last 5 seasons combined), plus had the Beloki scare, Heras not on as good form as previous years and shown he is beatable.

Hamilton will finish quite high, but because of his shoulder can't go out the saddle to atatck as much on the climbs so is unlikely to win. I agree about the basques, although i think Laiseka is more likely to win a stage as he is less dangerous and can't TT at all. Mayo had a bad time yesterday, but normally isn't too bad against the watch. Also the team lost both Etxebarria's yesterday, and particularly David is a big loss for them. They also have the added bonus of 3 top draw climbers who are alla llowed to go for it (i.e not 2 woerking for a leader), so they can take it in turns to attack. However, at least one of them will climb up the board again and may hit the podium.

Hopefully Armstrong won't win, but I have a horrible feeling he will.
Rich
Supporter
 
Posts: 1085
Joined: Tue 15 Apr 2003 14:10
Location: Sweden based, but travel alot so your guess is as good as mine, answers on a postcard to the HOF...

Postby Hajo » Sat 19 Jul 2003 15:20

After todays stage I have to correct myself. I had almost forgotten that Jan Ullrich can ride powerful attacks in the mountains, as we hadn't really seen him like this since 1997. As of now, Ullrich is the man to beat. At the latest by Monday evening he will be wearing the yellow jersey and will carry it to Paris.

Admin: please change my vote in the poll accordingly.

Hajo 8)
DON'T EAT YELLOW SNOW
Hajo
Free member
 
Posts: 53
Joined: Wed 22 Jan 2003 22:51
Location: Dortmund, Germany

Postby Kay » Sat 19 Jul 2003 15:47

Admin: please change my vote in the poll accordingly.


:lol: I can't do that - I'm British.

Rig the votes indeed. What a despicable suggestion. 8)
Not Delia - Foodie blog with lots of reviews and recipes.
User avatar
Kay
Site Admin
 
Posts: 15338
Joined: Wed 22 Jan 2003 13:06
Location: Kent for a couple of years

Postby Purley » Sat 19 Jul 2003 21:41

I thought I'd make an easy poll!

I agree - from what I have seen of the race it could be any one of several of the front runners that could come out top. I would bet on Vino, Ullrich or Armstrong.

Its getting very interesting. I like the way the athletes look out for one another - quite different from a lot of sports! I would be happy if Armstrong won - I think he is a terrific athlete. Today he was talking about being so dehydrated on yesterday's run he lost about 15 lbs in weight which he said can be fatal! I think they are all - all the ones named - great athletes and while I am sure they all want to win, I get the feeling they would all be happy if another one of that group beat them - insofar as they would have been beaten by another great athlete!

I guess we will have to wait just over a week to see.
Purley
Supporter
 
Posts: 1070
Joined: Mon 24 Mar 2003 14:07
Location: Regina

Postby Hajo » Sun 20 Jul 2003 06:50

Kay wrote:Rig the votes indeed. What a despicable suggestion.


:oops: Sorry. With 42° C here in Germany I thought for a moment that I was in Florida and got into a Miami Dade state of mind. :wink:

:shock: Hey, wait a minute! Do I hear a subject of the queen lecturing me about democracy? Get yourselves a constitution before you talk pseudo democracy to a citizen. :P


lizwil98 wrote:I get the feeling they would all be happy if another one of that group beat them - insofar as they would have been beaten by another great athlete!


:o I really don't think so. Sport is competitive. They have respect for each other, but that's it. Have a look at some of the teams' websites to spot the rivalry. You don't ride 3427 km at 35° C and more just to give tender loving care to each other. This is the Tour de France, not the Paralympics.

Yesterday, Jan Ullrich gave us an example of how hard they play as he mocked Lance Armstrong's bluff from the 2001 tour (back then, Lance pretended the dying swan, just to surprise everyone with an attack at the final climb). Just that Jan's theatrical performance was better: he fell behind the peloton, stopped, pretended to have stomach cramps and then had six of his helpers bring him back to the peloton.


Hajo 8)
DON'T EAT YELLOW SNOW
Hajo
Free member
 
Posts: 53
Joined: Wed 22 Jan 2003 22:51
Location: Dortmund, Germany

Postby Rich » Sun 20 Jul 2003 13:39

. As of now, Ullrich is the man to beat


Maybe, but despite all of Armstrongs frailties so far, he is STILL in the lead, albeit by not very much. With the amount of pressure he's been under in the mountains, you'd have sort of hope that at least he might be behind by now. But even when not on top form he is winning, for whatever reason. Which is why i think that he will probably have one good day in the pyrenees, which will be enough for him to win, but hope not
Rich
Supporter
 
Posts: 1085
Joined: Tue 15 Apr 2003 14:10
Location: Sweden based, but travel alot so your guess is as good as mine, answers on a postcard to the HOF...

Postby Purley » Mon 21 Jul 2003 20:47

Today Lance was great. I hate to admit it but often I am against the Americans in whatever sport they participate in - I am always on the side of some other country. However, that being said, for some reason I am a big Lance Armstrong fan. He just seems to have that ultimate grit that comes through - like it did today.

I don't care if he wins by 2 seconds - so long as he wins!

I am not against the others - I am just for Lance!!
Purley
Supporter
 
Posts: 1070
Joined: Mon 24 Mar 2003 14:07
Location: Regina


Return to Sports



Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

cron