Uk out of Europe

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Uk out of Europe

Postby dp600 » Thu 25 Feb 2016 06:50

If the vote goes in favour of an exit how will it effect those living ,working in Malta?.
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Re: Uk out of Europe

Postby gozomark » Thu 25 Feb 2016 19:07

The quick answer is that we dont know - no country has ever left the EU before, and the treaties dont cover it !

those living here for 5 years or more have the right to apply for the permanent version of the eResidence card,including non EU passport holders, those under 5 years dont


worst case is - we have no right to live or work here, and could be asked to leave - this is what happens to other non EU citizens - once been here 4 years they are asked to leave to stop them gaining the 5 year level

most likely case is - some form of agreement will be reached,given 2 million + UK passport holders living elsewhwere in the EU, and similar number of non UK EU passport holders living in the UK suggests logically some agreement should happen but no guarantees, and if the split is nasty, then all bets are off, esp if it only needs one country to block any agreement (eg France)
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Re: Uk out of Europe

Postby gozomark » Thu 25 Feb 2016 19:16

The risk is, that the EU wont want to make the leave option attractive for other countries, so could play hardball
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Re: Uk out of Europe

Postby DavidH » Fri 26 Feb 2016 06:58

As Gozomark quite rightly says we just don't know so it's fingers crossed! Those of us receiving a UK state pension would probably lose the right to any pension increase, this is an EU matter not a Commonwealth one, as is the case with those living in Australia, India etc. who don't get them. We have registered for a postal vote - http://www.gov.uk/voting-when-abroad - so I know which way I shall be voting. May I suggest you register now if you haven't already done so. The only restriction is that you have to have been registered to vote within the last 15 years. :)
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Re: Uk out of Europe

Postby Byzantium » Fri 26 Feb 2016 10:02

A further worry if you are a british person married to a non EU citizen is that part of "the deal" if the vote is to stay in the EU is that your partner will no longer be entitled to freedom of movement rights just by being married to you, they will have to satisfy national immigration conditions, this would apply to us and we have only lived here for 4 years so won't be eligible to apply for permanent residency, it seems we are at risk whatever the outcome of the vote is. Maybe it will all take a long time to sort out after the referendum and we might be able to reach the golden 5 year goal, remains to be seen I suppose!
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Re: Uk out of Europe

Postby DavidH » Fri 26 Feb 2016 10:10

As I understand it, if the vote is to leave then it would take 2 years to actually bring about the exit.
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Re: Uk out of Europe

Postby gozomark » Fri 26 Feb 2016 10:36

DavidH wrote:As I understand it, if the vote is to leave then it would take 2 years to actually bring about the exit.



yes, I think I read that somewhere
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Re: Uk out of Europe

Postby Byzantium » Fri 26 Feb 2016 10:45

Yes, I have read similar too, hopefully it will also take a while to introduce the changes in freedom of movement rights for non EU citizens married to british people if the vote is to stay in the EU. It is horrible not really knowing what will happen but we will just have to live in hope that it will all work out for the best.
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Re: Uk out of Europe

Postby gozomark » Fri 26 Feb 2016 11:24

betting odds - these are often better than opinion polls as actually involve people putting their money where their mouth is !

leave 9/4
stay 4/11

the leave odds have increased from 2-1 on Monday (ie less likely), implying a 31% chance of leaving v 33% on Monday
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Re: Uk out of Europe

Postby gozomark » Sun 06 Mar 2016 17:25

best odds now

leave 5/2
stay 4/11

the leave odds now imply 29% chance of leaving
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Re: Uk out of Europe

Postby gozomark » Sun 06 Mar 2016 17:28

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Re: Uk out of Europe

Postby gozomark » Wed 09 Mar 2016 10:37

It wasrather stating the obvious, but the comments from BoE governor yesterday were interesting in that he made them

"“Brexit” would probably weaken the pound, push up yields and undermine investment. It’s also “without question” that some financial-services companies could relocate from London. The central bank gave no details of its contingency in the event of the UK leaving and they made it clear they will be making no recommendations but they did say they will make extra liquidity available to the banks in the run up to the referendum."
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Re: Uk out of Europe

Postby dp600 » Tue 19 Apr 2016 15:07

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Re: Uk out of Europe

Postby gozomark » Tue 19 Apr 2016 15:24

The Maltese PM said in that link that he wont kick put any UK expats - do I believe him given whats happened in the last few weeks :-)
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Re: Uk out of Europe

Postby gozomark » Fri 22 Apr 2016 16:43

gozomark wrote:best odds now

leave 5/2
stay 4/11

the leave odds now imply 29% chance of leaving


having dropped to 7/4 (36% chance of leaving), in the last couiple of days back to 9/4 = 31%

The bounce in the pound from below 1.24 to 1.28 suggests the same
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